Street Fighter Ultra
Storyteller System Dice Mechanic Statistical Analysis
What follows is a statistical analysis of both the percentage chance of beating a specified difficulty by throwing a certain number of dice, and the average number of successes rolled, taking into account the average number of 1's rolled.
Altough it is statistically impossible to have an absolute 100% of rolling over a certain number, for the purposes of this analysis the percentages have been rounded to the nearest integer.
Note also that at difficulty 10, the chance of rolling a 1 is the same as rolling a 10, effectively cancelling each other out.
These values were generated using mathematical and statistical formulas and Microsoft Excel. The formula for the percentage is as follows:
([(Chance of NOT rolling the number on any given die^number of dice rolled)minus 1] multiplied by -1)
The formula for determining the average number of success is:
(the percentage of rolling a number or higher on any given dice multiplied by the number of dice thrown) minus (the percentage chance of rolling a 1 on any give dice [10%] multiplied by the number of dice thrown)
* 6 is the default difficulty for most actions.
| Difficulty
|
![[Number of Dice Rolled]](images/numdice.gif) |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6* |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
| 1 |
10% |
0.1 |
90% |
0.8 |
80% |
0.7 |
70% |
0.6 |
60% |
0.5 |
50% |
0.4 |
40% |
0.3 |
30% |
0.2 |
20% |
0.1 |
10% |
0.0 |
| 2 |
19% |
0.2 |
99% |
1.6 |
96% |
1.4 |
91% |
1.2 |
84% |
1.0 |
75% |
0.8 |
64% |
0.6 |
51% |
0.4 |
36% |
0.2 |
19% |
0.0 |
| 3 |
27% |
0.3 |
100% |
2.4 |
99% |
2.1 |
97% |
1.8 |
94% |
1.5 |
88% |
1.2 |
78% |
0.9 |
66% |
0.6 |
49% |
0.3 |
27% |
0.0 |
| 4 |
34% |
0.4 |
100% |
3.2 |
100% |
2.8 |
99% |
2.4 |
97% |
2.0 |
94% |
1.6 |
87% |
1.2 |
76% |
0.8 |
59% |
0.4 |
34% |
0.0 |
| 5 |
41% |
0.5 |
100% |
4.0 |
100% |
3.5 |
100% |
3.0 |
99% |
2.5 |
97% |
2.0 |
92% |
1.5 |
83% |
1.0 |
67% |
0.5 |
41% |
0.0 |
| 6 |
47% |
0.6 |
100% |
4.8 |
100% |
4.2 |
100% |
3.6 |
100% |
3.0 |
98% |
2.4 |
95% |
1.8 |
88% |
1.2 |
74% |
0.6 |
47% |
0.0 |
| 7 |
52% |
0.7 |
100% |
5.6 |
100% |
4.9 |
100% |
4.2 |
100% |
3.5 |
99% |
2.8 |
97% |
2.1 |
92% |
1.4 |
79% |
0.7 |
52% |
0.0 |
| 8 |
57% |
0.8 |
100% |
6.4 |
100% |
5.6 |
100% |
4.8 |
100% |
4.0 |
100% |
3.2 |
98% |
2.4 |
94% |
1.6 |
83% |
0.8 |
57% |
0.0 |
| 9 |
61% |
0.9 |
100% |
7.2 |
100% |
6.3 |
100% |
5.4 |
100% |
4.5 |
100% |
3.6 |
99% |
2.7 |
96% |
1.8 |
87% |
0.9 |
61% |
0.0 |
| 10 |
65% |
1.0 |
100% |
8.0 |
100% |
7.0 |
100% |
6.0 |
100% |
5.0 |
100% |
4.0 |
99% |
3.0 |
97% |
2.0 |
89% |
1.0 |
65% |
0.0 |
| 11 |
69% |
1.1 |
100% |
8.8 |
100% |
7.7 |
100% |
6.6 |
100% |
5.5 |
100% |
4.4 |
100% |
3.3 |
98% |
2.2 |
91% |
1.1 |
69% |
0.0 |
| 12 |
72% |
1.2 |
100% |
9.6 |
100% |
8.4 |
100% |
7.2 |
100% |
6.0 |
100% |
4.8 |
100% |
3.6 |
99% |
2.4 |
93% |
1.2 |
72% |
0.0 |
| 13 |
75% |
1.3 |
100% |
10.4 |
100% |
9.1 |
100% |
7.8 |
100% |
6.5 |
100% |
5.2 |
100% |
3.9 |
99% |
2.6 |
95% |
1.3 |
75% |
0.0 |
Last Updated on 6/3/1999
By Christian Conkle
Email: conkle@mecha.com